Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 14.925846 18.144779 21.711151 25.930923 30.761950 36.094595 42.399711
2025-11-23 9.853368 13.877559 18.831360 25.269714 33.300874 42.871020 55.010064
2025-11-30 7.591084 12.007159 17.899457 26.099542 36.958291 50.578637 68.659083
2025-12-07 5.723024 10.106098 16.406146 25.722382 38.708075 55.706932 79.121766
2025-12-14 4.557775 8.900883 15.571660 25.965146 41.086387 61.582099 90.659715
2025-12-21 3.371707 7.358476 13.934931 24.753634 41.190743 64.251204 97.920438
2025-12-28 2.817537 6.745347 13.611354 25.400267 43.918038 70.581145 110.348750
2026-01-04 2.321687 6.111308 13.131820 25.699333 46.077460 76.143292 121.880243
2026-01-11 1.945803 5.615643 12.799000 26.162895 48.464792 82.092128 134.145168
2026-01-18 1.670129 5.259837 12.654495 26.899714 51.288534 88.770975 147.675535
2026-01-25 1.322529 4.636198 11.892660 26.452704 52.122779 92.435250 156.869422
2026-02-01 1.099622 4.250211 11.534541 26.675028 54.042730 97.806754 168.749206
2026-02-08 0.872132 3.793120 10.991736 26.571045 55.534032 102.791056 180.592167
2026-02-15 0.651176 3.261377 10.187000 25.871738 55.946803 106.103210 190.064934
2026-02-22 0.554130 3.083501 10.162471 26.715227 59.140972 114.031401 206.960118
2026-03-01 0.421450 2.709289 9.581986 26.331062 60.046896 118.203979 218.058907
2026-03-08 0.338596 2.479155 9.317768 26.578267 62.120499 124.384001 232.525619
2026-03-15 0.231136 2.058145 8.436399 25.344467 61.262811 125.520400 238.864759
2026-03-22 0.192161 1.941275 8.391625 26.003026 64.111164 133.128419 255.965392
2026-03-29 0.152958 1.789536 8.207482 26.307584 66.262798 139.585696 271.341617
2026-04-05 0.123723 1.670958 8.099720 26.779632 68.769590 146.747414 288.075055
2026-04-12 0.103282 1.592328 8.105541 27.529869 71.881069 155.084941 306.988948
2026-04-19 0.073236 1.396375 7.657959 27.074728 72.445284 158.838638 318.252214